Turkmenistan: Social Risks Assessment
Minerva staff developed a bespoke social risk assessment model on behalf of a leading risk advisory consultancy, then utilised it to conduct a social, political and security risk assessment for an oil & gas services company constructing several gas-related facilities in Turkmenistan.
The scope of the social risk assessment (SRA) included well pads, processing facilities, storage sites, pipelines, accommodation units and logistics chains. Through a detailed analysis of assets at risk, socio-political context, security threats and corporate vulnerabilities, more than fifty scenarios were evaluated. These revealed that unanticipated political risks to and social risks from the project ranked significantly above predicted security risks, causing very high potential impact on corporate reputation and finances. Risks to operations, personnel and facilities were shown to be considerably lower than forecast.
The assessment gave the development management team insight into the obscure local, national and regional socio-political context, enabling them to anticipate and tackle effectively the difficulties that arose. The SRA’s various risk management recommendations identified specific measures the company could take in each case to avoid, mitigate or accept risks that threatened to halt, delay or interfere with construction.
The client commended the SRA model for its comprehensive scope, methodological rigour, generation of deep understanding and utility in helping to resolve complex operational questions.